Bible Reading: 1 Thessalonians 5:21-28 KJV
- 1 Thessalonians 5:21 KJV
In Part 1 of this devotional we learned that God wants you to know that He is real and He is who He says He is. We also noted that one of the best ways to prove the validity of the Bible is to look at what was prophesied in the Bible, and to see if it came true, and consider just how difficult the prophecy was to fulfill. In Part 2 of this devotional, we selected eight prophecies from more than 300 prophecies of the coming Messiah that have already been fulfilled. Below is a summary of the eight prophecies along with their probabilities:
Summary of the 8 Prophecies
These are cautious estimates, meaning the events are even more rare than what is listed above. The next question is what is the probability that one particular person would fulfill all eight of these? The way to get the composite probability is to multiply all the individual probabilities. Doing so the answer is 1:1028. To be correct we need to divide this by the total population (how many people that have lived) for the last 2,000 years. As a rough estimate, let's use 100 billion (1011):
1028 / 1011 = 1017
1017 put another way there is one chance in 100,000,000,000,000,000 that one person over the last 2,000 years would fulfill all eight prophecies. How big is 1017? Let's consider the following illustration. Fill a bucket with 1017 silver dollars the bucket would have to be the size of Texas, and it would be 2 feet deep. The chance of fulfilling those eight prophecies would be the same as marking one silver dollar with nail polish, dropping it into the Texas-sized bucket, mixing it up so it could be anywhere, then while being blindfolded, reaching in and pulling out the marked silver dollar on the first try. That is obviously very unlikely.
That is only using 8 of the 300 prophecies. Let's add eight more prophecies. The next eight prophecies would be more specific, thus less likely to occur than the previous eight. However, for simplicity's sake let's assume the next eight are no less likely than the first eight presented. Assuming there is no decreases in likelihoods,
(1028 first eight x 1028 second eight) / 1011 population = 1045
How big of a bucket would we need for 1045 silver dollars? If we make a ball of silver dollars that is 30 times the distance of the earth to the sun, it would contain 1045 silver dollars. The chance of fulfilling those 16 prophecies would be the same as marking one silver dollar with nail polish, dropping it into the enormous ball of silver dollars, mixing it up so it could be anywhere then blindfolded reaching in and pulling out the marked silver dollar on the first try. That is inconceivable unlikely, and that is only using 16 of the 300 prophecies.
I think you get the idea, but if you want to see how absurd this gets as the number of prophecies grows, Chuck Misler in the third video below takes the number of prophecies up to 48. As a spoiler, silver dollars are too large so he has to use something MUCH smaller. Keep in mind he is assuming the later prophecies are equally likely as the first "easier" eight prophecies.
Just including one prophecy such as "He would rise from the dead on the 3rd day" and how improbable that would be that would totally skew the probability. Then combine that with "Resurrection followed by destruction of Jerusalem" and these two alone demonstrates the reality of Jesus Christ when considering the prophecies were made hundreds of years before Jesus was born.
Some might say Jesus faked all 300 prophecies or they were lied about, including his death and resurrection, but his life cannot be disputed given the number of witnesses and secular historians that documented his life. Indeed Jesus is who the Bible says He is!
Sources:
Are you Saved? - Previous | Next
| Micah 5:2 | Born in Bethlehem | 1:100,000 (1 in 100,000) |
| Zech. 9:9 | King on a donkey | 1:100 |
| Zech. 11:12 | 30 pieces of silver | 1:1000 |
| Zech. 11:13 | Temple, Potter, etc. | 1:100,000 |
| Zech. 13:6 | Wounds in hand | 1:1000 |
| Isaiah 53:7 | No defense; innocent | 1:1000 |
| Isaiah 53:9 | Died with wicked, buried with rich | 1:1000 |
| Psalm 22:16 | Crucified | 1:10,000 |
These are cautious estimates, meaning the events are even more rare than what is listed above. The next question is what is the probability that one particular person would fulfill all eight of these? The way to get the composite probability is to multiply all the individual probabilities. Doing so the answer is 1:1028. To be correct we need to divide this by the total population (how many people that have lived) for the last 2,000 years. As a rough estimate, let's use 100 billion (1011):
1028 / 1011 = 1017
1017 put another way there is one chance in 100,000,000,000,000,000 that one person over the last 2,000 years would fulfill all eight prophecies. How big is 1017? Let's consider the following illustration. Fill a bucket with 1017 silver dollars the bucket would have to be the size of Texas, and it would be 2 feet deep. The chance of fulfilling those eight prophecies would be the same as marking one silver dollar with nail polish, dropping it into the Texas-sized bucket, mixing it up so it could be anywhere, then while being blindfolded, reaching in and pulling out the marked silver dollar on the first try. That is obviously very unlikely.
That is only using 8 of the 300 prophecies. Let's add eight more prophecies. The next eight prophecies would be more specific, thus less likely to occur than the previous eight. However, for simplicity's sake let's assume the next eight are no less likely than the first eight presented. Assuming there is no decreases in likelihoods,
(1028 first eight x 1028 second eight) / 1011 population = 1045
How big of a bucket would we need for 1045 silver dollars? If we make a ball of silver dollars that is 30 times the distance of the earth to the sun, it would contain 1045 silver dollars. The chance of fulfilling those 16 prophecies would be the same as marking one silver dollar with nail polish, dropping it into the enormous ball of silver dollars, mixing it up so it could be anywhere then blindfolded reaching in and pulling out the marked silver dollar on the first try. That is inconceivable unlikely, and that is only using 16 of the 300 prophecies.
I think you get the idea, but if you want to see how absurd this gets as the number of prophecies grows, Chuck Misler in the third video below takes the number of prophecies up to 48. As a spoiler, silver dollars are too large so he has to use something MUCH smaller. Keep in mind he is assuming the later prophecies are equally likely as the first "easier" eight prophecies.
Just including one prophecy such as "He would rise from the dead on the 3rd day" and how improbable that would be that would totally skew the probability. Then combine that with "Resurrection followed by destruction of Jerusalem" and these two alone demonstrates the reality of Jesus Christ when considering the prophecies were made hundreds of years before Jesus was born.
Some might say Jesus faked all 300 prophecies or they were lied about, including his death and resurrection, but his life cannot be disputed given the number of witnesses and secular historians that documented his life. Indeed Jesus is who the Bible says He is!
Sources:
Are you Saved? - Previous | Next
